Consumer confidence drives GDP growth in Kenya

Nairobi, Kenya - Africa's first monthly consumer confidence index (KIC Score) stood at +11 in June, a 3 percentage decrease from May. At this level, it means that the number of consumers who are optimistic is slightly higher that those who are pessimistic (a score of zero implies equal numbers in both camps). With a maximum of 100 and a minimum of -100, the current KIC level indicates that economic confidence continues to be positive in the countries' urban centers polled.

Concerns over the current economic conditions rise

Consumers continue to find the current economic conditions challenging with the sub-metric dropping 6 percent to reach -12. Despite the negative sentiment with current economic conditions, consumer optimism about future economic prospects as shown by the sub-index metric remained positive at +20 in June, a 2 percent drop from May.

Men slightly more optimistic than women

Men are slighly more optimistic than women (+12 vs +10), a reversal from May when women were slightly a bit more optimistic than men (+14 vs +13). Confidence dropped for people aged between 25 and 39 years old.

1 out of 7 countries in negative territory

The June readings of the KIC score range from -9 in Tanzania to +34 in Ghana. In 2 out of 7 countries, consumer confidence dropped in June with the main drivers being Nigeria.

Q1 GDP in Kenya driven by consumer confidence

The KNSB released their 2018 Q1 GDP results at 5.7% up from last quarter (4.8%) and they highlighted consumer confidence as one of the drivers. This is in line with the uptick we've seen in our data as well - in fact, the index in Kenya reached an all-time high (+12) in May.

Exhibit A: Kenya GDP annual growth rate

Exhibit B: Kenya KASI CCI trend

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KASI KIC Score’s 3000 sample survey of individuals in 7 urban centers in Africa was carried out between June 26, 2018 - July 10, 2018.


About KASI KIC Score

The KASI Insight Consumer Confidence Score (KIC SCORE) is a composite index compiled from a seven-questions survey that runs monthly via our consumer polls in the countries covered. The data output is based on fresh, randomly selected representative sample of city dwellers aged 18-64.

Released the first week of every month, the KASI Insight Consumer Confidence Index (KIC Score) provides a focused view on consumer perceptions in seven African urban centers (Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Tanzania) where most spending in the continent is concentrated. The survey provides a simple measure of consumers’ optimism about their economic prospects in the near term and attitude towards making major purchasing decisions.

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