Q1 GDP in South Africa disappoints

Nairobi, Kenya - Africa's first monthly consumer confidence index (KIC Score) stood at +11 in June, a 3 percentage decrease from May. At this level, it means that the number of consumers who are optimistic is slightly higher that those who are pessimistic (a score of zero implies equal numbers in both camps). With a maximum of 100 and a minimum of -100, the current KIC level indicates that economic confidence continues to be positive in the countries' urban centers polled.

Concerns over the current economic conditions rise

Consumers continue to find the current economic conditions challenging with the sub-metric dropping 6 percent to reach -12. Despite the negative sentiment with current economic conditions, consumer optimism about future economic prospects as shown by the sub-index metric remained positive at +20 in June, a 2 percent drop from May.

Men slightly more optimistic than women

Men are slighly more optimistic than women (+12 vs +10), a reversal from May when women were slightly a bit more optimistic than men (+14 vs +13). Confidence dropped for people aged between 25 and 39 years old.

1 out of 7 countries in negative territory

The June readings of the KIC score range from -9 in Tanzania to +34 in Ghana. In 2 out of 7 countries, consumer confidence dropped in June with the main drivers being Nigeria.

Q1 GDP in South Africa disappoints

The STATS SA released their 2018 Q1 GDP results at -2.2% down materially from last quarter (+3.1%). The manufacturing industry and the mining and quarrying industry were the largest negative contributors togrowth in GDP in the first quarter. Household final consumption expenditure increased by 1,5% in the first quarter, contributing 0,9 of a percentage point to total growth. Our data shows a very muted consumer confidence in South Africa in the first quarter and given the downward trend the months of May and June, we will expect Q2 GDP to remain low.

Exhibit A: South Africa GDP annual growth rate

Exhibit B: South Africa KASI CCI trend

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KASI KIC Score’s 3000 sample survey of individuals in 7 urban centers in Africa was carried out between June 26, 2018 - July 10, 2018.