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    What is driving Nigeria consumer confidence?

    Lagos - October 18, 2019 : There was no change in the CCI this month; the index remained at +4. There was minor movement in individual index scores. Nigeria’s CCI experienced the most significant movement dropping five points from +24 to +19. Nigeria still holds the highest CCI score while Ghana continues to under perform with the lowest CCI of -32.


    KASI Consumer Confidence Index (2016-2019)

    Consumer confidence in current economic conditions up 3 points

    Consumer confidence in current economic conditions improved by 3 points but remained negative at -14. This increase was helped by an eight point increase in the job prospects sub-index. Although still negative, the job prospects sub-index increased from -38 to -30. Nigeria showed the most significant increase in the sub-index, moving up to -43 this month from -64 in August.


    Consumer economic expectations falls slightly by 2 points

    Consumers’ economic expectations fell slightly by 2 points, from +12 in August, to +10 in September. There was minimal movement in the sub-indexes that measure consumer economic expectations, however, some countries experienced significant changes. For example, Nigeria experienced a significant decline in the national economy expectations sub-index. This decline was balanced out by growth in the sub-index in other countries.


    A deep dive into Nigeria’s CCI performance

    Nigeria has recorded the highest CCI score every month this year. The score matched its historical high of +29 in June and the lowest score is +19 (in January and September of this year).


    KASI CCI Nigeria (2019)

    Sub-indexes indicate that Nigerians have low confidence in current economic conditions (sub-index score of -17) relative to other countries; however, there is a very high economic expectations (sub-index score of +33) among Nigerian consumers. Driving down confidence in current economic conditions is low job prospects. Nigeria’s job prospects index, at -43, is the lowest among countries tracked.


    Yet, Nigerian consumers remain optimistic about the economy. The country recorded the highest scores in both the city and national economy expectations sub-index, +35 and +39 respectively. In addition, the sub-index that scored highest in Nigeria was the income expectations sub-index. This sub-index scored +43 suggesting that Nigerian consumers expect continued growth in their incomes. Nigeria’s income expectations sub-index was also the highest among countries tracked, about 16 points higher than the second highest score.


    Although Nigerian consumers are confident in their country’s economy, the availability of jobs remains a significant issue, both in Nigeria and in the rest of the countries tracked.



    CONTACT

    Kyel Governor

    Economist

    kyel@kasiinsight.com


    Methodology

    KASI Consumer Confidence Score (KASI CCI) is a composite index compiled from a seven-question survey that runs monthly via our consumer polls in the countries covered. The data output is based on a fresh, randomly selected representative sample of city dwellers aged 18-64. Released the first week of every month, KASI CCI provides a focused view on consumer perceptions in seven African urban centers (Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Tanzania) where most spending in the continent is concentrated.

    For each question, the final metric will be a ‘balance measure’ of the percentage of positive responses minus the percentage of negative responses. The overall metric will be an average across all the questions. September 2019 data were collected 09/21 to 10/08, 2019.

    For further information on the KASI CCI survey methodology, please contact info@kasiinsight.com



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