Updated: Dec 2, 2019
NAIROBI: KASI consumer confidence (KASI CCI) rose slightly by 4 points in August driven by a marked increase in consumer confidence in Cameroon. Consumer confidence in the current economic conditions was 2 points higher than in July. A positive outlook on the economy also helped lift the overall sentiment.
In August, negative movements of individual index scores were recorded for two of seven countries (Kenya & South Africa) leading to a 4 point increase in the global consumer confidence index metric. Kenya recorded the largest decline in CCI with a drop of 7 points while Ghana continue to underperform with the lowest CCI of -33.
Short-term Outlook Improved by Increased Spending
Consumer’s evaluation of the current economic conditions moved up slightly +2 but remained negative at -17. This was strongly driven by continued challenges in the job market as reflected by a 2 points decrease in the job sub-index (-38 from -36), partially offset by increased spending related to back to school as reflected by a higher number of respondents looking to make large purchases.
A Positive Outlook On The Economies
Consumers’ economic expectations rose 4 points, from +8 in July to +12 in August. Despite the improvement, the outlook is still 2 points from the historical high (+14) this year.
Cameroon's CCI reaches its highest level in 2019
Cameroon’s CCI reached a historical high in August largely due to an improvement across all seven sub-indexes; (1) income expectations, (2) change in ability to make large purchases, and most importantly, (3) future outlook on Cameroon’s economy. Despite the anglophone crisis and its economic impact, the sudden uptick in these sub-indexes are likely a consequence of the government action plan to provide support to businesses impacted by the crisis.
Cameroon's economy will grow at 4.1 percent this year and 4.2 percent in 2020 despite rising security challenges in the country, a mission of experts from Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) forecasted in August.
"Important developments have been noticed in several economic indicators, which showed the economic reforms in the country are moving on the right track," according to Jean Claude Ngeumeni, head of the CEMAC mission.
South Africa's CCI continues to be negative
Political and economic challenges in South Africa continue to dampen consumer confidence. South Africa continues to underperform economically and the recent issues with xenophobia have not helped in boosting consumer confidence. South Africa CCI’s dropped 3 points to -3 in August. Current conditions index dropped 5 points to -13 while the economic expectation index also dropped 1 to +2.
The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s monthly business confidence index (BCI) fell to 89.1 in August from 92.0 in July, the lowest level since the inception of the index in April 1985 when the measure was at 88.1, the business body said.
“We’re not talking about the same set of circumstances as back then, but you are seeing a similar economic climate,” said SACCI economist Richard Downing.
“This time the main thing is the difficulty government is having in implementing what needs to be done”.
IMF 2019 forecast lower growth driven by a more subdued growth in South Africa
According to the latest IMF growth update, in sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected at 3.4 percent in 2019 and 3.6 percent in 2020, 0.1 percentage point lower for both years than in the April WEO, as strong growth in many non-resource-intensive countries partially offsets the lackluster performance of the region’s largest economies. Higher, albeit volatile, oil prices have supported the outlook for Angola, Nigeria, and other oil-exporting countries in the region. But growth in South Africa is expected at a more subdued pace in 2019 than projected in the April WEO following a very weak first quarter, reflecting a larger-than-anticipated impact of strike activity and energy supply issues in mining and weak agricultural production.
KASI Consumer Confidence Score (KASI CCI) is a composite index compiled from a seven-question survey that runs monthly via our consumer polls in the countries covered. The data output is based on a fresh, randomly selected representative sample of city dwellers aged 18-64. Released the first week of every month, KASI CCI provides a focused view on consumer perceptions in seven African urban centers (Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Tanzania) where most spending in the continent is concentrated.
For each question, the final metric will be a ‘balance measure’ of the percentage of positive responses minus the percentage of negative responses. The overall metric will be an average across all the questions. August 2019 data were collected 08/21 to 09/08, 2019.
For further information on the KASI CCI survey methodology, please contact email@example.com