Predicting consumer demand during election cycles in Africa

The elections are upon us once again in Ivory Coast and Ghana. What does that mean for consumer sentiment and thus, consumption?

The consumer confidence index (CCI) is a predictor of consumption even in African countries where a rise in consumers’ optimism leads to an increase in their aggregate expenditure. As such, we believe, and indeed discover that, the CCI can be a good predictor of consumer demand in an election year and that the nature of the predictability could differ depending on whether a country has a history of election-related violence or not.

In our white paper, we explore the behavior of the KASI CCI during election years. We examine the trends of the CCI in previous elections with a special focus on Ghana, a historically peaceful country during elections, and Kenya, which has a history of election-related violence. From this, we forecast the probable direction the CCI will move in during the upcoming elections in Ghana and Ivory Coast and what that would mean for household consumption and retailers.

Go ahead and download our white paper for free to see what our data tells us regarding consumer demand in Ivory Coast and Ghana during the upcoming elections!

About the methodology

KASI Consumer Confidence Score (KASI CCI) is a composite index compiled from a seven-question survey that runs monthly via our consumer polls in the countries covered. The data output is based on a fresh, randomly selected representative sample of city dwellers aged 18-64. Released the first week of every month, KASI CCI provides a focused view on consumer perceptions in seven African urban centers (Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Tanzania) where most spending in the continent is concentrated.

For each question, the final metric will be a ‘balance measure’ of the percentage of positive responses minus the percentage of negative responses. The overall metric will be an average across all the questions.


Want to see more?

Please get in touch with us if you want to explore consumer trends from each country. Request a demo

Get the latest data, insights, and opportunities from KASI.


20 views0 comments