Sandra Beldine Otieno, MSc
January 10, 2025
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The last two years have tested the resilience of Kenyans as the country faced mounting economic pressures, violent protests, and growing public discontent. From the antigovernment demonstrations in 2023 to the violent Finance Bill protests in 2024 and the poorly received rollout of the Social Health Authority (SHA) in October 2024, Kenya has endured profound economic and social upheaval. These events, compounded by systemic governance challenges, have left the nation grappling with uncertainty about its future. Insights from Kasi Insight’s consumer sentiment data provide a clear picture of a population under immense strain, with little relief in sight as the country moves into 2025.
In 2023, antigovernment protests erupted between March and July, driven by frustration over the rising cost of living and dissatisfaction with governance. The demonstrations, led by the Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Coalition, brought thousands of Kenyans to the streets. Protesters voiced concerns about skyrocketing inflation, unemployment, and alleged electoral malpractice. The government’s response was marked by heavy-handed tactics, including police brutality and excessive use of force. By the end of the protests, at least 31 people had lost their lives, with many more injured or arrested.
Despite these demonstrations, financial pressures on households persisted. Kasi Insight’s Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) reflected this growing strain, falling from 7 at the start of the year to -13 by mid-2023 as inflation surged and wages stagnated. The Index of Current Conditions (ICC) also dropped sharply, reaching -50, reflecting widespread dissatisfaction with everyday economic realities. This period set the stage for the even more contentious events of 2024.
The introduction of the Finance Bill 2024 brought sweeping tax changes aimed at increasing government revenue. The provisions included the Significant Economic Presence Tax targeting foreign digital companies, VAT hikes on essential goods like bread, eco-levy on plastics and electronics, a motor vehicle tax, and changes to pension contribution caps. These measures would further squeeze disposable incomes, intensifying financial burdens on households. This sparked youth-led protests, primarily organized on social media platforms, that erupted across the country in June 2024. The demonstrations escalated quickly, culminating in the storming of Parliament on June 25, where parts of the building were set ablaze in a dramatic show of anger. Tragically, the protests left over 50 people dead, with many more injured or arrested.
Kasi Insight’s sentiment data mirrored the intensity of public frustration. The ICS dropped to -11 in June, its lowest point of the year, while the ICC fell further to -52, highlighting widespread discontent and financial strain. The Index of Future Expectations (ICE) fell to just 5, signaling the population’s waning optimism about the future as the full impact of the Finance Bill became evident.
Later in the year, the government launched the Social Health Authority (SHA) to replace the National Hospital Insurance Fund (NHIF), promising comprehensive healthcare coverage, but the rollout faced funding shortfalls, operational inefficiencies, and poor communication. Coming just months after the violent Finance Bill protests, the SHA’s failure to meet expectations only deepened public frustration, with many viewing it as another poorly planned initiative.
Kasi Insight’s consumer sentiment data for 2023 and 2024 offers a sobering look at how Kenyans have responded to these turbulent years. The Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS), which measures overall consumer confidence, remained consistently negative. Starting at 7 in early 2023, the ICS fell sharply to -13 by midyear as households struggled to cope with inflation and stagnant wages. A brief recovery in early 2024, when the ICS reached 3 in April, was short-lived as the Finance Bill protests and rising taxes pushed the index back to -11 by midyear. By the end of 2024, the ICS remained deeply negative, highlighting the enduring financial strain on households.
The Index of Current Conditions (ICC) consistently reflected the harsh economic realities Kenyans faced. From -50 in 2023 to a low of -55 in 2024, the ICC underscored the ongoing struggles of households dealing with rising living costs, limited income growth, and higher taxes. Meanwhile, the Index of Future Expectations (ICE), which captures optimism about the future, showed fleeting hope in early 2024, peaking at 21 in February. However, this optimism quickly faded as the effects of the Finance Bill and the underwhelming rollout of the SHA became evident. By December 2024, the ICE stood at 14, reflecting a population increasingly skeptical about the prospects for recovery.
As Kenya enters 2025, the challenges of the past two years show little sign of abating. Increased taxation will continue to exert upward pressure on the cost of living. The Social Health Authority, while intended to improve access to healthcare, remains hampered by funding and operational challenges, leaving many without the promised benefits. Businesses, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises, will continue to face higher operational costs and subdued consumer demand, further limiting economic growth. Kasi Insight’s data suggests that public confidence in the government’s ability to enact meaningful change is at an all-time low. Households are bracing for another year of financial strain, with rising taxes and stagnant wages expected to persist.
Despite the challenges of the last two years, Kenyans have shown remarkable resilience. From taking to the streets in protest to finding ways to adapt to economic pressures, the population has demonstrated an unwavering determination to demand better governance and economic policies. However, resilience alone is not enough to drive progress. The government must urgently address the systemic issues that have fueled discontent, including equitable taxation, expanded social safety nets, and greater transparency in governance. As 2025 begins, Kenya stands at a critical crossroads. The government must act decisively to rebuild trust, stabilize the economy, and deliver on promises of reform. Failure to address these challenges risks deepening the hardship and disillusionment that have defined the past two years.
Share on socials using this caption: 🇰🇪 Kenya’s two years of turmoil and uncertainty From rising taxes to youth-driven protests on social media, Kenyans have endured relentless economic pressures. With consumer sentiment sinking to record lows (ICS: -11, ICE: 5), the outlook for 2025 remains uncertain. 📊 #KenyaEconomy #YouthProtests #UncertainFuture #ConsumerSentiment
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